Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 1.389509 1.444893 1.502087 1.565735 1.634790 1.707679 1.790738
2026-01-04 1.335842 1.411299 1.491699 1.584264 1.688567 1.803284 1.940163
2026-01-11 1.281654 1.369528 1.465305 1.578407 1.709619 1.858735 2.043564
2026-01-18 1.241519 1.339253 1.447830 1.578876 1.734858 1.917464 2.152031
2026-01-25 1.190989 1.293740 1.409524 1.551595 1.724087 1.930818 2.204209
2026-02-01 1.157021 1.265193 1.388749 1.542806 1.733549 1.967626 2.286641
2026-02-08 1.125862 1.238212 1.368070 1.532297 1.739243 1.998782 2.362670
2026-02-15 1.097185 1.212776 1.347786 1.520706 1.742120 2.025433 2.433469
2026-02-22 1.078750 1.198651 1.340231 1.524009 1.763383 2.076452 2.541080
2026-03-01 1.047053 1.167305 1.310292 1.497504 1.744090 2.071306 2.566914
2026-03-08 1.021814 1.142996 1.288109 1.479786 1.735176 2.079251 2.611798
2026-03-15 1.001357 1.123888 1.271661 1.468603 1.734123 2.097519 2.673009
2026-03-22 0.992060 1.118685 1.272922 1.481091 1.766526 2.166227 2.821218
2026-03-29 0.986465 1.117780 1.279390 1.500427 1.809015 2.252054 3.006493
2026-04-05 0.971414 1.104449 1.269366 1.497052 1.819056 2.289851 3.115031
2026-04-12 0.959428 1.094611 1.263444 1.498824 1.836258 2.339305 3.249360
2026-04-19 0.937521 1.071544 1.239580 1.475050 1.815047 2.327223 3.269968
2026-04-26 0.923373 1.058094 1.227946 1.467724 1.817567 2.352701 3.363520
2026-05-03 0.909209 1.044273 1.215413 1.458627 1.816881 2.372686 3.448536
2026-05-10 0.895252 1.030399 1.202427 1.448399 1.813910 2.388502 3.526889
2026-05-17 0.887182 1.023958 1.199118 1.451630 1.831341 2.439145 3.683297
2026-05-24 0.869080 1.004037 1.177234 1.427633 1.805746 2.414903 3.676696
2026-05-31 0.854616 0.988649 1.161164 1.411571 1.791909 2.410214 3.712688